Rowan Christou, who lives in Sherborne St John, came to the Attlee Room in Portcullis House at Westminster along with other young engineers whose research is pushing back the frontiers of knowledge.
"Rowan explained the model she has developed to predict the damage done to the environment by aircraft emissions. Using DTI forecasts of demand for air travel, aircraft capacity and fuel consumption, Rowan can help forecast the impact on global warming."
See details below
Aero2k is a global inventory of aviation fuel usage and emissions for the year 2002, enabling a prediction for the year 2025. It has been developed as an international collaboration of scientists and engineers from academia and industry by QinetiQ, Cody Technology Park, Ively Road, Farnborough, Hants GU14 OLX
A global database of flight movements was built from a combination of air traffic control (A TC) data of longitude, latitude and altitudes for each flight, and schedule information from areas not covered by A TC data. Aircraft performance tools and the latest information on aircraft emissions were then used to calculate fuel usage and emissions for every flight in 2002. Military aviation emissions were calculated by a separate method based on publicly available military data. Total fuel usage and emissions were then plotted onto a map of the world, with a resolution of 1 °x1 °x500ft. Uniquely, the Aero2k emissions inventory includes particulate emissions (soot) to provide the first gridded estimate of non-gaseous emissions from civil aviation.
The 2002 results have been analysed using technology predictions and fleet roll-over models from the Department of Trade and Industry and Airbus UK. From this, a prediction of global aviation emissions for 2025 has been made and plotted onto a new global grid. The Aero2k calculations reveal that in 2002, civil aviation used 156 Tg of fuel and military aviation used 19.5Tg. As a result, the combined production of CO2 by all aviation was 553Tg, and for NOx it was 2.24Tg. In 2025, the model predicts that 110% more fuel will be used by civil aviation; and 110% more CO2 and 60% more NOx will be emitted.